Global natural-catastrophe premium-equivalent insurance protection shortfall.
Swiss Re Institute ↗NRX / THE STRUCTURING THESIS
The insurance layer
for prediction markets.
The protection gap is the problem. Capital allocation is the opportunity. Retail-funded reinsurance is the mechanism. Expanded insurance protection is the objective.
NRX is developing the insurance layer for existing prediction markets: infrastructure and expert services that connect defined risks, eligible investor capital, and enforceable insurance obligations. Parametric and index-based structures offer one route—making selected risks easier to describe, fund, and resolve while keeping the protection buyer’s needs at the center.
Working prototype · Proposed insurance infrastructure · No live placements
EXPLORE THE SAMPLE MARKETSOpen the full sandbox →
Customers Brokers / cedants / market platformsNRX product Structuring tools & servicesCapacity thesis Permitted retail syndication
THE PROBLEM / THE PURPOSE
A disaster should not become a financing crisis.
When protection is missing, households, businesses, and governments absorb the shock themselves. Emergency spending competes with rebuilding, public services, and livelihoods. In climate-vulnerable and lower-income regions, affordability, limited distribution, scarce exposure data, and the cost of structuring smaller placements can all obstruct protection.
Climate change adds pressure, but finance alone cannot eliminate physical risk. A World Bank study published in 2020 estimated that climate change could push an additional 32–132 million people into extreme poverty by 2030 across its scenarios. That is a conditional projection, not a forecast that insurance alone can prevent.
NRX’s opportunity is to make a defined protection need easier to translate into a funded obligation. Distributed capital can broaden participation; standardized risk design can reduce placement friction; dependable settlement can make the resulting protection useful when the event occurs.
THE MARKET CONTEXT
A measurable protection need.
An established capital market.
Market context for the proposed capital pathway. These figures describe global protection needs and institutional markets, not NRX activity.
Non-life alternative reinsurance capital at June 30, 2026.
Gallagher Re ↗Catastrophe bonds outstanding at June 30, 2026.
Artemis ↗Different measures, not additive: the modeled protection gap is a premium-equivalent shortfall, not realized uninsured disaster losses or a capital requirement. Cat bonds overlap with alternative capital; source definitions and market coverage differ.
FROM ANALYSIS TO A REVIEWABLE PLACEMENT
The workflow is the product.
The commercial opportunity extends beyond underwriting a new pool of capital. Each stage creates structured information that can improve the next.
01 / PLACEMENT STUDIO
Bring the wording.
Document intake, ceded-share sizing, indicative premium, and reserve-funding calculations.
Build a review package →Working prototype 02 / MARKET INTELLIGENCEConnect the evidence.
Attributed ILS research, contract comparisons, and public market context for structuring decisions.
Explore the research →Research available · live indications planned 03 / RISK DESKInspect the assumptions.
Loss-layer scenarios, pricing sensitivity, and a roadmap from placement record to capital release.
Test a sample layer →Analysis available · servicing plannedNRX is designed to support the complete risk-transfer workflow—from the initial cession mandate and pricing review to funded placement, contractual resolution, and final capital release. Live syndication, binding, custody, and settlement require authorized partners and further development.
01 / THE INVESTMENT THESIS
Markets mobilize capital.
Structure makes it usable.
The opportunity is a service layer around existing venues: translate insurance wording into reviewable terms, connect funding to enforceable obligations, and carry the evidence through placement and servicing.
THE GAP NRX IS DESIGNED TO CLOSE
Economic hedging is not automatic capital relief.
A prediction-market position may offset an economic loss. That alone does not make it a qualifying insurance or reinsurance contract, or establish regulatory capital relief. Insurers need recognized risk mitigation: effective and enforceable risk transfer, appropriate counterparties or vehicles, adequate collateral, and properly assessed basis risk under the applicable regime.
NRX’s proposed role is to design that connection. AI would extract and organize the risk terms, test trigger alternatives, and prepare the evidence. Insurance, actuarial, and legal specialists would shape and validate the obligation. Qualified partners would connect the structure to existing markets and syndicated retail capital, with reserves funded before risk is bound.
The intended outcome is additional claims-paying capacity and structures that can qualify for the relevant solvency treatment where requirements are met. AI, an event contract, or a funded account alone does not confer recognition; no NRX structure is represented as approved.
Regulatory basis: Solvency II sets conditions for recognizing reinsurance and SPV risk mitigation, including effective transfer and funding. U.S. credit for reinsurance follows a separate state framework. Applying those principles to the proposed NRX model is a structuring thesis to validate, not a regulatory determination.
THREE DIFFERENT FINANCIAL FUNCTIONS
A market price is not a policy. A reserve is not a promise.
Price discovery
A prediction-market price expresses the cost of a defined event outcome. It may contribute information about probability or market sentiment, but it is not automatically a technically adequate premium for an insurance layer.
Legal risk transfer
An enforceable insurance or reinsurance contract specifies the protected party, covered exposure, attachment, limit, exclusions, payout conditions, and responsible risk-bearing counterparty.
Funded capacity
Eligible collateral secures the maximum contractual obligation under an approved structure. Capacity becomes usable only when the relevant legal, funding, and regulatory conditions are satisfied.
NRX is designed to connect these three functions—not confuse them.
NRX / TOOLS & SERVICES
Structure the risk.
Prepare the placement.
The proposed service combines AI-assisted wording analysis, expert design, pricing evidence, funding calculations, and lifecycle records. Deliver it through a workspace, APIs, and scoped structuring engagements.
Inspect the working prototype →PARTNER VENUES / MARKET ACCESS
Price the event.
Connect participants.
Existing prediction-market platforms would provide listing, price discovery, and trading within their permissions. NRX is designed to help them serve insurance use cases; it is not building a competing prediction market.
Discuss a venue integration →QUALIFIED PARTNERS / RISK CAPACITY
Establish the obligation.
Secure the reserves.
Authorized counterparties and specialist providers would support the risk vehicle, enforceable contracts, collateral, distribution, and settlement. Eligible retail investors would supply syndicated risk capital through a permitted route.
Explore the launch framework →02 / SOCIAL VALUE & ADDITIONALITY
Capital Raised Is Not Protection Created.
More participation in insurance-linked securities does not automatically reduce the global insurance protection gap.
Make additionality the test.
If new investors merely replace existing capital providers, the source of funding changes without necessarily increasing the amount of insurance available.
NRX’s economic and social contribution depends on additionality: attracting risk-bearing capital, reducing transaction friction, or enabling placements that would not otherwise occur on comparable terms.
Success should be measured in incremental funded limits, coverage enabled, all-in protection costs, settlement performance, and investor outcomes—not merely trading volume or capital commitments.
More reinsurance is not enough. More protection is the goal.
Affordability and access also depend on underwriting, distribution, exposure, and resilience investment.
What we would measure
- Net new fully funded limit placed
- Share serving previously unmet protection needs
- All-in protection cost versus comparable alternatives
- Settlement timeliness and disputes
- Investor loss, concentration, and capital lock-up
No reduction in premiums or uninsured losses is claimed at this stage.
THE CAPITAL FORMATION THESIS
More Capital. Better Allocation. Broader Coverage.
Insurance-linked securities have demonstrated that capital markets can assume catastrophe risk outside traditional reinsurance balance sheets.
NRX proposes to extend that model by making selected risk-bearing opportunities accessible to a broader population of eligible investors through permitted instruments, standardized structuring, and existing market infrastructure.
The potential value comes from three improvements.
01 / PARTICIPATION
Broaden Risk-Bearing Participation
Aggregate smaller capital commitments into meaningful, fully funded insurance obligations. Expand the potential investor base while preserving suitability standards, transparent risk disclosure, and appropriate regulatory safeguards.
02 / PLACEMENT
Reduce Placement Friction
Standardize repeatable elements of underwriting, contract analysis, pricing evidence, funding verification, and transaction servicing.
AI-assisted workflows can reduce administrative burdens and make smaller or specialized placements more economical to evaluate.
03 / PROTECTION
Direct Capital Toward Unmet Protection Needs
Connect capital with exposures that are difficult, inefficient, or costly to place through existing distribution channels.
Additional funded capacity may enable larger insurance limits, new programs, or more flexible risk-transfer arrangements where viable underwriting economics exist.
CAPITAL FORMATION / REGIONAL RISK POOLING
Aggregate protection needs into a structure capital can evaluate.
Multiple countries, insured portfolios, or agricultural programs could participate in a pooled risk-transfer structure, with defined coverage, limits, and payout rights for each participant. A qualified vehicle could translate those obligations into investable risk-bearing instruments.
Diversification must be demonstrated, not assumed. Correlation, shared weather patterns, geographic concentration, seasonal overlap, and aggregate loss limits determine whether pooling improves the risk profile. NRX’s proposed role is to organize exposure and contract data, support aggregation analysis, and make the allocation of capital and claims transparent.
- 01 / PARTICIPATION
Eligible capital
Investors subscribe to permitted risk-bearing instruments. Smaller units may broaden access; principal remains at risk.
- 02 / STRUCTURING
NRX + qualified partners
Prepare risk terms, compare pricing evidence, and design the contract, distribution route, and secured collateral arrangement.
- 03 / PROTECTION
Funded obligations
Authorized counterparties bind coverage. Verified contractual determinations govern payouts and the release of remaining capital.
Existing markets may support price discovery and participation. NRX is the proposed structuring and servicing layer; it is not a competing exchange or an operating insurer.
ILLUSTRATIVE APPLICATION / FLORIDA
Capacity for private carriers.
Explore collateralized reinsurance for an authorized insurer seeking to assume Citizens policies. A defined layer or quota share could connect additional capital to an identified portfolio.
ILLUSTRATIVE LAYER SHARE$100m × 25% = $25m
The same funded slice illustrated in Placement Studio: $2.5m retained net premium plus $22.5m investor collateral. This is a proposed capped layer, not a quota-share treaty.
OIR approval, genuine risk transfer, acceptable collateral, and the carrier’s full financial plan remain essential. Neither lower premiums nor reduced statewide assessment exposure is guaranteed.
Florida OIR · take-out requirements ↗ILLUSTRATIVE APPLICATION / SOVEREIGN RESILIENCE
Liquidity after a severe earthquake.
Private capital and regional resilience are converging. On October 13, 2026, Generali and the World Bank Group announced an MoU to mobilize private capital and expand insurance and investment solutions in emerging markets. Its priorities include climate and crop insurance, disaster protection, and regional risk pooling. This is relevant institutional precedent for NRX’s thesis, not an NRX partnership or validation of its proposed structure.
Generali · World Bank Group partnership, October 2026 ↗Explore a parametric top-up for an authorized sovereign risk program. A separately designed household product could follow through licensed local insurers and payment partners.
The institutional precedent already exists. Artemis reported that the World Bank had facilitated or issued more than $4.8 billion in catastrophe bonds by June 26, 2024. This is cumulative historical issuance—not current outstanding capacity, payouts, or NRX activity.
The NRX question is whether comparable structuring discipline can serve smaller or underserved placements through broader eligible participation. Sovereign budget protection does not automatically deliver funds to households; the beneficiary and distribution arrangements must be designed explicitly.
Artemis · World Bank precedent, June 2024 ↗HYPOTHETICAL PAYOUT / NOT A PRICED PRODUCT$10m limit × 30% = $3m
If the agreed, independently verified trigger produces a 30% payout, $3m becomes payable under the contract. No earthquake threshold or payment deadline is assumed.
Historical precedent: CCRIF announced approximately $40m for Haiti after the August 2021 earthquake, with payment within 14 days and an initial tranche within one week. This is not an NRX transaction or partnership.
CCRIF · Haiti’s 2021 parametric payout ↗Prove the benefit.
Measure incremental funded limit, all-in protection cost, basis risk, time to usable cash, and investor outcomes. Distributed capital does not inherently lower costs; tokenization does not create regulatory approval; oracle data and payment systems require verification and fallback controls.
See the pilot validation gates →03 / THE TRANSACTION
Fit into the tower.
Define the obligation.
NRX would organize a share of an approved layer, with regulated partners handling the risk vehicle, distribution, custody, and other authorized functions as required.
THE TRANSACTION / ILLUSTRATIVE CASH FLOWS
One funded obligation. A traceable flow of money.
TRIGGER DESIGN / THE BRIDGE TO A MARKET
Make the event measurable. Keep the protection meaningful.
A parametric contract pays according to an agreed event measure and payout schedule. An indemnity contract responds to covered losses. An industry-loss trigger responds to an agreed measure of insured losses across the market. Each can support risk transfer; they solve different problems.
For NRX, the design task begins with the buyer’s exposure and liquidity need—not a convenient event to trade. Model the relationship between the trigger and the loss, compare alternative terms, and test the consequences before inviting capital.
| Structure | What determines payment | Trade-off to test |
|---|---|---|
| Indemnity | Covered losses under the contract | Closer alignment with the insured loss; adjustment and claims development can delay final payment. |
| Physical parametric | Specified observations and a pre-agreed payout curve | Potentially quicker determination; damaging events can still miss the trigger. |
| Industry-loss index | A named provider’s loss estimate for a defined event and market | Independent market reference; reporting lags, revisions, and mismatch with the buyer’s portfolio. |
| Modeled loss / hybrid | An agreed model or combination of conditions | Potentially better exposure alignment; model version, inputs, and multiple conditions need precise governance. |
Basis risk is the design constraint: the contract may pay less—or more—than the buyer’s actual loss. A simpler trigger is useful only if that mismatch is understood and acceptable.
| Risk | Candidate evidence | Key design question |
|---|---|---|
| Hurricane | Wind speed or central barometric pressure, track, location, and observation time | Does the measure capture damaging conditions at the insured exposure, including distinct surge or flood losses? |
| Earthquake | Moment magnitude, depth, location, or measured ground motion | How closely does the event footprint track local damage? Magnitude alone is insufficient. |
| Tsunami | Verified water level, wave height, or inundation at defined locations | Are observation sites representative and likely to remain available during the event? |
| Flood | Rainfall, river level, flood depth, or validated satellite inundation | Does the index reflect local exposure, drainage, and the relevant loss period? |
| Cyber · later research | Independently verified service interruption or a specified loss index | How are systemic aggregation, changing threats, attribution, and disputed telemetry handled? |
| Political risk · later research | A narrowly defined insured act or independently determined contractual event | Can coverage, exclusions, legal restrictions, and contested facts be resolved reliably? |
Start with one well-observed natural peril and geography. Cyber and political risks require separate underwriting, evidence standards, and legal analysis; they are not interchangeable weather-style markets.
The research behind the design choices
Milliman · Parametric insurance
“A captivating solution” explains how measurable, modelable triggers can address coverage gaps, with basis risk and actuarial calibration central to the design. Its captive-insurance context informs the workflow; it does not validate the NRX structure.
Read Milliman ↗MacMinn & Richter · Trigger incentives
Their 2018 mortality-risk study compares index and indemnity hedging under particular insolvency and incentive assumptions. The lesson for NRX is to examine stakeholder incentives alongside basis risk—not to claim index triggers always outperform indemnity.
The Choice of Trigger in an Insurance Linked Security ↗CAS / Variance · Loss-index development
“Modeling Loss Index Triggers for Cat Bonds: A Continuous Approach” models reported and unreported catastrophe losses over time. It reinforces the need to specify index development, revisions, and final determination rather than assume an industry-loss index settles immediately.
Read the modeling paper ↗SANDBOX / A BUYER-LED COMPARISON
Start with the insurer’s loss. Then test the trigger.
A proposed next module would compare a cedant’s modeled loss with physical-parametric and industry-loss-trigger payouts across the same scenarios. Measure shortfall, over-recovery, expected payout, tail exposure, and time to final determination before comparing funding terms.
This comparison is a development target. The current Risk Desk models synthetic loss layers; Scenario Lab explores event-contract hedging. Neither is a calibrated parametric or industry-loss underwriting engine.
Inspect the current loss-layer model → · Explore trigger mismatch →04 / PARAMETRIC CONTRACT RESOLUTION
Verified events.
Timely liquidity.
NRX proposes a blockchain-enabled settlement layer connecting independently verified event data to pre-agreed payouts from funded reserves. The aim is faster access to claim proceeds, with a traceable record from trigger determination to payment.
Proposed architectureFor integration with existing venues and qualified risk, oracle, and custody partners. Live smart-contract settlement is not connected. Oracle networks such as Chainlink or Pyth are candidates to evaluate, not confirmed integrations or substitutes for authoritative hazard data.
Agree the rules.
Fix the parameter, geography, observation window, payout curve, data hierarchy, and resolution deadlines before coverage begins. AI would assist design; specialists would approve the wording and its translation into deterministic smart-contract rules.
Secure the reserve.
Fund the maximum aggregate payout before risk attaches. Hold eligible collateral in a legally ring-fenced account or controlled on-chain escrow, with fees funded separately and withdrawals restricted by the contract.
Validate the event.
A designated oracle would relay authenticated, timestamped observations from contract-named sources such as meteorological agencies, seismic networks, or validated satellite datasets. Apply the agreed data-finality and challenge rules before determining the payout. The oracle supplies evidence; the agreed contract controls the outcome.
Release the proceeds.
Once the determination is final and required conditions are met, the smart contract would calculate and initiate the authorized payout. Record payment confirmation, reconcile the remaining reserve, and retain collateral for unresolved obligations.
WHY PARAMETRIC
Less uncertainty after an event.
An objective trigger and payout schedule can reduce the need for individual loss adjustment. Pre-funded collateral reduces reliance on raising cash after a catastrophe. The target is a shorter, measurable interval from verified event data to usable funds.
Liquidity here means money available to the protection buyer. Investor trading liquidity and early withdrawal are separate questions.
WHY BLOCKCHAIN
A shared record. Controlled execution.
Record approved term references, oracle attestations, payout calculations, and transfers on a common ledger to reduce reconciliation and make the settlement trail verifiable. Sensitive policy and client data would remain off-chain.
Market prices can inform structuring; a venue’s market outcome would support an insurance payout only where its trigger, evidence, and finality rules match the legal obligation.
ILLUSTRATION / A SEPARATE PARAMETRIC COVER
From a rainfall reading to a defined payout.
Assume a hypothetical $1m cover with a linear payout: zero at 150 mm of rainfall, rising to the full limit at 250 mm, measured at the agreed location over the specified period.
- Final validated reading
- 180 mm
- Share of limit payable
- 30%
- Payment from reserve
- $300,000
(180 − 150) ÷ (250 − 150) × $1m = $300,000
The remaining $700,000 follows the contract’s collateral-release rules. Actual losses may be higher or lower: this is basis risk. These invented thresholds illustrate settlement mechanics, not a priced product or an extension of the loss-based tower in Placement Studio.
Design requirements for dependable settlement
Evidence & exceptions
Specify data publication and revision cutoffs, stale-feed checks, a source hierarchy, challenge deadlines, and a named dispute authority. Conflicting or missing data would pause affected payouts and follow the agreed fallback process; it would not automatically mean no payout.
Code & legal authority
Require independent code review, controlled signing keys, multiple approvals for privileged actions, and defined pause and recovery powers. The legal terms must govern code errors, amendments, disputes, and beneficiary rights. Blockchain does not itself establish enforceability or capital relief.
Payment & usable cash
On-chain escrow could transfer an approved settlement asset; custodied cash would require an authenticated payment instruction and custodian confirmation. Specify currency, redemption, network-finality requirements, and a fiat fallback. Digital assets introduce issuer, depeg, custody, and network risks.
Timing & validation
Measure event-to-data, data-to-determination, and determination-to-usable-cash separately. Data delays, disputes, required loss declarations, and payment rails affect timing. A pilot would replay events and failure scenarios before live use; instant payment is not promised.
RESERVE DESIGN / PAY THE LIABILITY YOU PROMISED
Distribute participation. Preserve claims-paying certainty.
Decentralized participation can broaden the capital base, but insurance obligations still need accountable counterparties, enforceable terms, permitted distribution, and controlled collateral. Cross-border access does not bypass national rules.
The pilot should prioritize eligible, liquid collateral aligned with the contractual payout currency. A basket-weighted settlement token or a GCI-style unit of account is a longer-term research question, not the funding foundation: valuation, redemption, currency mismatch, custody, and collateral acceptance would need independent validation. No such token is issued or integrated by NRX.
Smart contracts can automate agreed instructions. They cannot remove basis risk, guarantee a liquid trading market, or turn an unapproved asset into qualifying insurance collateral.
Research basis: NAIC describes pre-agreed parametric payouts, independent verification, and basis risk. BIS research examines the operational, governance, legal, and settlement risks of distributed ledgers. The architecture above is NRX’s proposal; neither source validates or endorses it.
05 / HOW RETAIL CAPITAL EARNS
Premium is the reward.
Loss-bearing is the service.
Returns depend on actual payouts, expenses, instrument terms, and when collateral is released. The example below uses the same proposed capital stack as the tower in Placement Studio.
The proposed distribution waterfall
- Fund the risk$2.5m net premium + $22.5m retail reserve = $25m capped payout reserve. Placement fees are funded separately.
- Meet covered obligationsPay the NRX slice’s share of covered layer losses from that reserve. Contractual expenses and collateral trapping affect distributable amounts.
- Release the residualAfter final determination and release, distribute remaining assets to investors according to the instrument terms.
| NRX slice payout | Amount returned | Gross period return |
|---|---|---|
| No covered payout | $1,111.11 | +11.1% |
| 50% of slice limit | $555.56 | −44.4% |
| Full slice limit | $0 | −100% |
Hypothetical allocations assume pro-rata distribution of the full residual reserve. No probabilities, expected returns, annualization, investment income, taxes, or investor-level fees are modeled. An indefinite release delay can materially change realized returns. Premium is already included in the reserve and is not added a second time.
Who could participate
The retail vision requires a permitted product and distribution route with appropriate eligibility, disclosures, onboarding, and concentration controls. Tokenization and a simple interface do not establish eligibility.
What investors must underwrite
Peril, geography, attachment, trigger, model uncertainty, correlated catastrophe exposure, claims development, custody, liquidity, and total principal loss. Diversification and secondary exit are not assured.
06 / HOW NRX EARNS
Build a service business.
Earn on useful infrastructure.
Proposed customers are brokers, cedants, and existing prediction-market or capital platforms. NRX would earn from software and specialist services; commercial terms remain to be validated through a partner pilot.
| Revenue stream | Customer / payer | Value delivered |
|---|---|---|
| Workspace subscription / API licensing | Broker, cedant, platform | Repeatable document, risk, evidence, and lifecycle workflows |
| Risk intelligence licensing | Insurer, reinsurer, capital manager | Appropriately sourced, aggregated market-implied risk analytics, with provenance, methodology, and permitted usage rights |
| Implementation / integration | Enterprise design partner | Scoped adapters, schemas, onboarding, and workflow configuration |
| Structuring / servicing / permitted placement fees | Agreed transaction participant | Expert design and placement support under applicable permissions and partner contracts |
Risk intelligence is a proposed recurring revenue stream: license aggregated market-implied analytics to insurers, reinsurers, and capital managers where source licenses and usage rights permit. Commercial validation must establish data quality, buyer willingness to pay, and sustainable data costs. Confidential placement data would require separate permission; it is not assumed available for resale.
ILLUSTRATIVE TRANSACTION ECONOMICS
$25m transferred limit × 10% premium = $2.5m premium.
At an assumed NRX fee of 1% of premium, gross transaction revenue would be $25,000. The buyer’s outlay would be $2.525m; $2.5m enters the reserve and $25,000 funds the fee. This is an example, not a price quote, forecast, or signed commercial term.
Gross revenue must cover partner revenue shares, modeling and data, AI inference, servicing, acquisition, compliance, and support. This example does not assume a second structuring fee, subscription charge, maker rebate, or underwriting profit.
Alignment by design
Separate fees from claim reserves. Data and API access may support recurring revenue; trading-related or reserve-administration fees would require an authorized role and explicit terms. Do not assume an entitlement to reserve yield. Disclose compensation and conflicts. Use approved terms and independent risk review. The proposed model does not require NRX to retain underwriting risk on its own balance sheet.
What must prove out
Willingness to pay, repeat placement volume, contribution margin after partner and data costs, risk-selection quality, and retention. Workflow efficiency is a hypothesis until measured against a real placement baseline.
07 / PARTNER PILOT & EXECUTION
One defined risk.
One measurable pilot.
Start with a broker, insurer, captive, or public-sector risk program that can identify an unmet protection need in one geography. Add actuarial and data specialists, an authorized risk vehicle and distribution partner, and an existing venue. Development-finance institutions and climate-risk consortia are potential collaborators to approach; no affiliation is represented.
Establish a baseline
Select one peril and region, then replay historical and stressed events against an authorized exposure set. Compare trigger payouts with losses, data gaps, structuring time, and existing protection costs.
Ground the workflow
Specify the observation source, payout curve, reporting window, revisions, and fallback. Add licensed models and expert review; test the oracle path using historical data before any live settlement.
Confirm the structure
Resolve product classification, vehicle, investor eligibility, distribution permissions, currency-matched collateral, and servicing responsibilities. Establish who receives funds and how they become usable cash.
Prove utility
Advance only after the design and operating requirements are met. Measure incremental protection, basis risk, total cost, settlement performance, and investor outcomes before widening retail access.
CURRENT EVIDENCE
A working prototype. A defined integration agenda.
Available: PDF text extraction, indicative premium and funding calculations, tower scenarios, paper trading, exports, synthetic loss-layer analysis, and pilot intake.
Required for live operation: grounded AI interpretation, calibrated underwriting, licensed pricing inputs, authorized counterparties and distribution, vehicle arrangements, custody, oracle integration, and validated smart-contract or conventional settlement services.
No signed customers, committed capital, revenue, regulatory approvals, or external partnerships are represented. This is a venture and design-partner discussion, not an investment offering.
THE PARTNER ASK
Bring a risk.
Help prove the bridge.
Scope a historical replay or a supervised workflow pilot with NRX.
NRX / PARTNER-MARKET WORKFLOW DEMO
Market sandbox
Explore how a partner-market workflow could work. Fictional positions and prices illustrate the mechanics; NRX does not operate a live trading venue.
INSTITUTIONAL APPLICATIONS
Two uses. Different obligations.
Hedge existing ILS exposure
An ILS investor or capital manager could evaluate permitted event-market positions to offset part of an existing portfolio’s catastrophe exposure. The test is economic: how closely do the event definition, payout, maturity, and available liquidity match the underlying position?
A hedge may reduce selected losses while leaving basis risk. It does not itself create new insurance capacity or establish solvency recognition.
Underwrite additional capacity
A cedant or sponsor could arrange new insurance or reinsurance protection through an authorized, appropriately funded vehicle. Investor capital would support a defined claims-paying obligation, with enforceable contracts, eligible collateral, and controlled settlement.
The test is contractual and financial: can the structure bind and fund additional protection, and meet the applicable recognition requirements?
Proposed institutional applications. The sandbox below simulates event-contract mechanics; it performs neither live hedging nor underwriting.
A market outcome is the beginning of the structure—not the end.
Event contracts can provide transparent prices for defined outcomes. Insurance coverage requires more: an identified exposure, a legally responsible counterparty, agreed claims or trigger conditions, sufficient collateral, and enforceable payment obligations.
NRX's proposed role is to connect eligible market participation with that insurance structure. This sandbox demonstrates event-market mechanics; it does not create coverage, execute a reinsurance placement, or establish regulatory capital relief.
See how a risk becomes a placement →ILS / MARKET REFERENCEExternal chart · monthly updates
Catastrophe bond market yield
Follow the USD yield of the outstanding cat-bond market using Artemis’s chart, compiled with Plenum Investments. Compare insurance risk spread, collateral yield, and expected loss over time.
Insurance risk spreadCompensation for taking catastrophe risk
Collateral yieldUnderlying 3-month U.S. Treasury bill yield
Expected lossModeled risk context—not a guaranteed loss
Market yield is not realized performance, a prediction-market probability, or an executable NRX quote.
Illustrative YES probability
Observation ends
Price feedIllustrative
Live liquidityNot connected
SAVED ON THIS DEVICE
Your paper portfolio
Cash
Positions at sample prices
Cash reserved for limits
SCENARIO LAB
Make the economics visible.
Change the assumptions. See the cost of getting the trigger wrong.
FIND A STARTING POINT
Keyword matching across our six sample scenarios. Results are research starting points, not available hedges.
Basis risk is the gap between your loss and the trigger.
A storm can cause a loss without meeting the chosen wind-speed threshold. An industry loss index can rise while your own portfolio remains unaffected. The model below does not assume those outcomes always move together.
Model assumptions
Contract count = ceiling(target net offset ÷ (1 − price)). Costs include the entry price only. This model assumes a $1 binary payout, complete fills, no fees, no taxes, no default, and no early sale. Prices are editable examples, not quotes or verified probabilities. A contract with these terms may not exist.
One event. Three different financial outcomes.
The economic loss to an insured portfolio, the payout of a defined event contract, and the payment owed under a reinsurance agreement may differ materially. The relationship depends on the coverage wording, attachment, loss measure, trigger, and contract terms.
NRX's proposed structuring workflow evaluates these differences before treating a market position as a potential component of an insurance transaction.
PLACEMENT STUDIO / THE INSURANCE-TO-MARKET WORKSPACE
Complex wording.
Clear market terms.
From reinsurance language to a risk people can understand.
NRX’s proposed AI structuring layer would read reinsurance wording, organize the obligations, and help specialists design understandable parametric contracts for existing prediction markets. A clear event question, observable trigger, and explicit payout make the proposed risk easier to evaluate.
Translation is a design process: the original coverage, exclusions, and potential gaps must remain visible. A simpler market contract is not automatically equivalent protection.
PLANNED / INTERACTIVE COVERAGE SELECTION
Shape the cover around the mandate.
A planned guided workflow would let cedants adjust the coverage limit, ceded percentage, maximum acceptable premium, and collateral requirements in one place. Each revision would show its effect on indicative economics, funding needs, and unresolved placement conditions.
Pricing feedback
Compare the premium budget with evidence-supported indications for the selected share and terms. Flag gaps for specialist review rather than imply that a lower budget can purchase unchanged protection.
Funding-readiness feedback
Compare required eligible collateral with verified funding, identify any shortfall, and distinguish commitments from deposited assets. Funding readiness would remain separate from legal approval and authority to bind.
The calculator below already demonstrates limit and cession sizing, indicative premium, and simulated reserve funding. Integrated premium-budget controls, configurable collateral requirements, and live funding verification are planned.
ILLUSTRATIVE TRANSLATION / HUMAN REVIEW REQUIRED
Keep the substance.
Make the risk legible.
A hypothetical Florida wind example shows how the proposed workflow could turn dense coverage terms into an event-market specification.
Start with what is covered.
“25% participation in a $100m occurrence layer excess of $300m, subject to covered Florida wind losses and the underlying exclusions.”
Hypothetical summary, not binding wording. The slice responds to covered losses within the layer; a hurricane category alone does not determine its payout.
Extract. Compare. Flag.
- Link limits, attachment, geography, and exclusions to their source clauses.
- Propose measurable triggers and compare them with the covered exposure.
- Flag missing terms, basis risk, and questions for actuarial and legal review.
Will a Category 3+ hurricane make landfall in Florida during the agreed season?
- Evidence
- Final NHC report; geography and intensity definitions agreed in advance.
- Event-contract payout
- Illustrative binary unit: $1 if YES, $0 if NO.
- Resolution
- Defined reporting cutoff, corrections, challenges, and dispute process.
The critical review: does the trigger match the loss? A Category 3 landfall can occur without the insured layer attaching; covered losses can also occur without that trigger. A binary market position does not reproduce the layer’s loss-based payout. Specialists would need to model the mismatch, size any position, and approve a separately enforceable risk-transfer structure—or retain an indemnity design.
WHERE RETAIL CAPITAL FITS
A defined slice.
Inside a reinsurance tower.
Insurers assemble protection in layers. NRX’s proposed role is to help a broker structure and syndicate a funded share of a selected layer alongside other capacity.
Historical context · Allstate, August 2021
Reinsurance News described Allstate filling a $400m gap layer using catastrophe-bond and single-year coverage. Its Florida program also combined traditional contracts, FHCF coverage, and ILS. This illustrates how different sources of capacity can coexist within a program.
Read the historical Allstate example ↗The diagram below is an original, simplified NRX example. Its amounts, layers, premium, and retail allocation are hypothetical; they do not represent Allstate’s actual tower or an available placement.
Higher layers attach only after lower loss thresholds are exceeded.
Cumulative covered event loss ↑
$600m
exhaustion
exhaustion
Higher-layer catastrophe bond / ILS$200m excess of $400m
$400m
Selected layer · $100m excess of $300mRetail access through a permitted vehicle / instrument
Other capacity · 75%$75m of layer limit
NRX slice · 25%$25m of layer limit
$300m
attachment
attachment
Traditional reinsurance$200m excess of $100m
$100m
Insurer retentionFirst $100m retained
$0m
Vertical bands are schematic, not to scale. Placement shares run across a layer; attachment and exhaustion run up the tower. Other programs can place ILS or traditional capital at different levels.
INSIDE THE $25m NRX SLICE
Premium + retail reserve
= funded payout limit.
- Net premium / initial YES pool
- $2.5m
- Syndicated retail reserve capital
- $22.5m
- Total payout reserve
- $25m
Assumed premium is 10% of the transferred limit. The YES pool is entirely premium-funded at inception; retail participants supply the balance. Fees sit outside this reserve.
The illustrated NRX structure combines retained net premium with syndicated investor collateral to fund one capped payout obligation. The premium is already included in the reserve and cannot be counted twice. Conventional insurance-linked securities may employ different premium, principal, and collateral arrangements. The proposed NRX mechanism would require independent validation of its legal, financial, and regulatory treatment.
Pro-rata allocation within the selected layer; no reinstatements, expenses, investment income, or other contract conditions modeled. Loss means covered loss under the agreed wording, not total economic damage.
Fund a share of a risk—not the entire tower.
The selected layer pays min($100m, max(0, covered loss − $300m)); the NRX slice pays 25% of that amount. Retail capital bears that slice’s economics through the proposed vehicle. Trigger, exclusions, claims development, and collateral release remain explicit contract terms.
WORKING PROTOTYPE / MANUAL ASSUMPTIONS
Bring the wording.
Design the risk transfer.
Define the mandate, compare pricing evidence, and calculate the reserve behind the proposed obligation.
Available nowPDF intake · pricing · funding · exportsFiles stay in your browser. No AI analysis, binding quote, or live placement is generated.
YOUR MANDATE / INPUT PREVIEW
Input summary only. Calculate below to review indicative pricing, fees, and funding.
A transaction package—not just a quote.
The placement package brings together the covered exposure, proposed terms, pricing assumptions, collateral requirements, settlement rules, and unresolved diligence items. It is designed to reduce repeated information requests and support review by brokers, actuaries, legal advisers, risk-bearing vehicles, and capital providers.
WORDING → QUOTE → SYNDICATION
A reviewable placement.
A transparent capital stack.
The YES pool starts entirely premium-funded. Retail participants syndicate the remaining reserve capital. No placement fills until premium and the full reserve target are funded.
- Ingest & reviewExtract wording, verify the layer, exclusions, term, trigger, and settlement provisions.
- Price the transferred shareCompare historical loss estimates with a sourced market indication. Fees are charged separately from reserve funding.
- Syndicate & fundPremium + retail capital = full payout reserve. Funding remains a prerequisite for placement.
Planned capital discovery & draft indication sheet
PLANNED / CAPITAL DISCOVERY WORKFLOW
Understand market appetite before asking capital to commit.
Brokers currently discover capital appetite through relationships, submissions, model exchanges, and iterative negotiations. NRX proposes a standardized way to communicate a defined risk and collect permissioned, non-binding indications of interest from eligible counterparties.
The objective is earlier visibility into potential capacity, pricing expectations, and preferred contract structures—not an automated substitute for underwriting or an executable order book.
Illustrative indication record
- Risk / peril
- Layer & ceded share
- Trigger / coverage basis
- Indicative premium range
- Not established unless supported by entered evidence
- Potential capacity
- Not indicated
- Counterparty / source
- Not connected
- Indication timestamp
- Not available
- Validity / expiration
- Not established
- Approval status
- Draft — non-binding
Local demonstration export only. No request is sent to a counterparty.
TARGET AI WORKFLOW
From readable terms to a reviewable transaction.
The proposed output is a source-linked transaction package: original wording, extracted obligations, candidate event questions, trigger and payout specifications, evidence sources, funding requirements, and unresolved review items. Specialists would approve any parametric alternative before handoff to qualified counterparties and a permitted venue. Where a simple event trigger cannot represent the exposure adequately, the workflow should preserve an indemnity structure rather than force a binary contract.
Premium-funded YES
Net risk premium funds the initial YES position. Retail capital funds the balance of the payout reserve. Trading and brokerage fees sit outside that reserve; the same premium cannot be counted twice.
Venue-neutral execution economics
NRX's proposed structuring and servicing fees are distinct from the trading, distribution, custody, and clearing fees charged by participating partners. Venue-specific maker and taker economics depend on the applicable platform, instrument, and contractual arrangements. No live venue fee schedule is integrated into this prototype.
MARKET INTELLIGENCE / CURATED RESEARCH
An established market.
A wider access layer.
Artemis research on catastrophe bonds, collateralized reinsurance, tokenization, and event markets—translated into concrete design choices for NRX.
ILS / MARKET REFERENCEExternal chart · monthly updates
Catastrophe bond market yield
Follow the USD yield of the outstanding cat-bond market using Artemis’s chart, compiled with Plenum Investments. Compare insurance risk spread, collateral yield, and expected loss over time.
Insurance risk spreadCompensation for taking catastrophe risk
Collateral yieldUnderlying 3-month U.S. Treasury bill yield
Expected lossModeled risk context—not a guaranteed loss
Market yield is not realized performance, a prediction-market probability, or an executable NRX quote.
Research reviewed November 1, 2026
A targeted review of relevant Artemis resources and reporting, not an exhaustive archive. Summaries below are attributed research; the NRX implications are our product interpretation. No affiliation, data license, or endorsement is implied.
01 / SOURCE → PRODUCT
What the research changes.
Market size shows an existing mechanism. Contract design, distribution, and servicing determine whether additional capital can use it.
02 / CHOOSE THE RIGHT CONTRACT
One event can support
different obligations.
| Structure | What determines payout | What NRX must capture | Core trade-off |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indemnity layer | Covered losses under the contract | Attachment, limit, exclusions, claims definition, loss development | Closer alignment to covered losses; adjustment and collateral release can take longer |
| Industry loss index / ILW | Named industry loss estimate and any additional contractual conditions | Index agency, geography, event definition, threshold, reporting finality | Index may diverge from the cedant’s actual losses |
| Parametric | Specified observable measurement and payout formula | Source, units, location, window, thresholds, revisions and fallback | Objective measurement can simplify determination; actual losses can differ from payout |
| Modeled loss | Agreed model applied to specified event and exposure data | Model version, exposure set, calculation agent and event inputs | Model and exposure assumptions introduce mismatch risk |
Indemnity dominance is a reason to preserve original wording. NRX should propose a parametric alternative only after comparing basis risk. A yes/no interface is suitable only when the payout obligation has been mapped correctly.
03 / THE CAPITAL & SETTLEMENT DESIGN
Define rights before tokens.
Insurance-linked route
A cedant transfers a specified risk to an authorized vehicle. Investors fund a permitted interest in that vehicle. Losses, distributions, and collateral release follow its contract. Retail access depends on an approved product and distribution route.
Event-contract route
An eligible venue lists a defined outcome. Market makers provide liquidity and participants take positions. A separately enforceable arrangement is needed to connect those positions to a cedant’s insurance obligations.
Proposed NRX funding model
For a single capped payout, net premium funds the initial YES position and syndicated investor capital supplies the remaining payout reserve. Fees remain outside collateral. The prototype reports funding readiness and never executes a live fill.
Capital is not volume
Count unique funded capacity, actual cessions, and incremental protection. Trading turnover and secondary transfers do not automatically add insurance capacity or reduce uninsured losses.
04 / FROM RESEARCH TO DELIVERY
A focused route to a pilot.
Replay a placement
Use authorized wording, reviewed exposure data, and historical terms. Measure time, missing fields, and pricing discrepancies.
Connect evidence
Add grounded AI, licensed models, comparable pricing, and quote timestamps with expiration.
Fund a pilot
Establish vehicle, investor eligibility, distribution, custody, approvals, and collateral release terms.
Broaden participation
Validate disclosures, concentration limits, investor understanding, and servicing before wider retail access.
PLANNED / LICENSED RISK INTELLIGENCE
Turn dispersed signals into decision-ready evidence.
NRX could license appropriately sourced, aggregated market-implied risk analytics to insurers, reinsurers, and capital managers: changes in event pricing, cross-market dispersion, and exposure-relevant trends, accompanied by methodology, timestamps, and source provenance.
Any commercial feed would depend on data licenses, aggregation rights, quality controls, and safeguards for confidential information. Thin trading, participant concentration, and inconsistent event definitions can distort signals; market-implied measures are not calibrated loss estimates or executable insurance quotes.
Product exploration only. No proprietary analytics feed or data-licensing revenue is represented.
05 / MARKET REFERENCE DESK
Use the right evidence for the job.
Deal directory · structure & issuance ↗Dashboard · market context ↗Expected loss & coupon context ↗Quarterly market reports ↗
Published issuance terms can inform comparable analysis after adjustment for peril, attachment, trigger, term, model, and market date. Coupon, spread, expected loss, event probability, and insurance premium are different measures. None of these pages provides NRX with an executable live quote.
Open live publisher headlines & NWS alerts →FROM MARKET SIGNAL TO PLACEMENT DECISION
Evidence is valuable when it changes the decision.
Catastrophe research, published issuance terms, model revisions, and observed market activity become more useful when linked to a specific insurance exposure. NRX's proposed intelligence workflow connects each observation to its source, timing, affected geography, relevant contract terms, and potential implications for pricing or available capacity.
An event alert is not an insured-loss estimate. An observed probability is not an insurance premium. A published catastrophe-bond spread is not an executable quote. NRX keeps these distinctions explicit while organizing the evidence needed to structure and evaluate a transaction.
Structure at a glance
Illustrative deal-profile template · no security or offer represented
- Cedant / sponsor
- Not available
- Peril and geographic exposure
- Not available
- Coverage period
- Not available
- Contract / trigger type
- Not available
- Attachment point
- Not available
- Exhaustion point
- Not available
- Limit / principal
- Not available
- Expected loss
- Not available
- Indicative spread / premium
- Not available
- Data source and publication date
- Not available
- Information status
- Illustrative
These attributes help compare risk-transfer opportunities, but published terms require adjustment for coverage, peril, model assumptions, attachment, trigger, term, and market date. Research information is not a live offer, verified transaction price, or indication of available capacity.
Put the structure to work.
Build a placement package with explicit economics and settlement terms.
RISK DESK / WORKING BACKEND PROTOTYPE
Inspect the evidence.
Price the assumptions.
Official weather observations, transparent loss-layer calculations, and a sample syndication ledger. Keep hazard intelligence separate from underwriting judgment.
ARTEMIS / MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Follow the existing ILS market
Refresh published Artemis headlines and open the deal directory for issuance details. This is market intelligence, not executable prices, an order book, or an underwriting oracle.
No feed requested yet.
OFFICIAL HAZARD FEED
Weather intelligence
Fetch active alerts from the National Weather Service. No alert count or loss estimate is inferred before the feed responds.
Responses can be cached for 60 seconds. Alerts do not estimate insured losses, annual event probability, or contract settlement. Source documentation ↗
AWAITING A MANDATE
Transparent inputs.
Reproducible results.
Calculate expected layer loss, attachment and exhaustion probabilities, tail loss, an illustrative premium, and capital allocation.
Model specification & interpretation
Each sample row is a mutually exclusive annual aggregate loss outcome. Layer payout = min(limit, max(0, stressed loss − attachment)). Expected layer loss is the probability-weighted payout. TVaR 95% is the mean payout in the worst 5% of modeled outcomes, including fractional scenario weights.
Illustrative technical premium = (expected layer loss + limit × capital load) ÷ (1 − expense ratio). No investment income, brokerage, taxes, profit target beyond the selected load, reinstatements, or correlated portfolio model is included. A parametric product would need its own trigger payout model and basis-risk analysis.
TARGET OPERATIONAL WORKFLOW / NOT CONNECTED
From placement record to final release.
Draft
The exposure, wording, pricing assumptions, and requested transfer are being assembled.
Reviewed
Authorized specialists validate the coverage, model evidence, counterparty responsibilities, and proposed terms.
Funded
An authorized custodian or administrator verifies that the required collateral is available under the approved structure.
Bound
Qualified parties establish the enforceable risk-transfer obligation and record the coverage period.
Monitored
Event, exposure, reserve, and contract data are tracked against the agreed obligations.
Resolved
Covered losses or parametric triggers are determined under the contract's calculation, evidence, and dispute provisions.
Released
Required claims and expenses are satisfied, unresolved liabilities are reserved, and eligible residual capital is returned.
Illustrative lifecycle only. NRX currently does not bind contracts, verify live collateral, administer claims, or release investor funds.
PRIVATE WORKSPACE
Saved model drafts
Signed-in users can save up to 100 synthetic drafts; the latest 20 are shown. Each is isolated to your site identity. No policyholder or confidential exposure data is requested.
Drafts have not been loaded.
REGULATORY DESIGN / RESEARCH AS OF NOVEMBER 1, 2026
Choose the instrument.
Then choose the jurisdiction.
A preliminary diligence map for counsel and partners. Entity incorporation, insurance authorization, investment distribution, and trading venue permissions are separate decisions.
Recommended launch hypothesis
Begin as a technology and workflow provider to authorized institutional counterparties. Evaluate a Bermuda SPI or Irish Solvency II SPV for a specific insurance-linked transaction once a sponsor and distribution partner are identified. This is a proposed sequence, not a determination that the business is exempt from licensing.
PHASED COMMERCIALIZATION
Serve established structures. Earn the right to expand.
Phase 1 / Existing ILS sponsors
Support established sponsors and authorized counterparties using existing, appropriately approved structures. Begin with placement preparation, document analysis, pricing evidence, and servicing workflows. Validate utility through a historical replay before any supervised live transaction.
Phase 2 / Platform-native instruments
Subsequently explore instruments designed for participating platforms with authorized insurance, issuance, distribution, and custody partners. Advance only when product permissions, eligible participation, full funding, and dependable settlement are established.
Each phase is gated by demonstrated demand, viable economics, and the required approvals. Platform-native design does not make an instrument eligible for retail distribution or regulatory capital treatment.
INITIAL COMMERCIAL WEDGE
Start with one Florida wind placement. Prove the workflow.
NRX's proposed first use case is a defined Florida hurricane risk-transfer layer originated by a broker, insurer, or reinsurer. The initial pilot would replay an authorized historical placement using approved wording, appropriately shared exposure information, documented pricing assumptions, and a specific ceded or retroceded share.
The objective is to determine whether NRX can prepare a more complete placement package, identify missing information earlier, improve the transparency of pricing evidence, and simplify communication with potential capital providers.
This is a software and structuring pilot—not an initial public retail securities offering. A supervised funded transaction would follow only if legal permissions, risk-bearing counterparties, investor distribution, custody, and collateral arrangements are established.
Build only what the market proves it needs.
| Gate | Required evidence | Stop / reconsider if |
|---|---|---|
| 01 — Validate demand | Qualified broker or cedant interviews, authorized historical documentation, and a defined workflow problem | Interest remains conceptual and no partner will provide a suitable test case |
| 02 — Demonstrate utility | Measurable changes in preparation time, data completeness, pricing traceability, and review effort | The prototype does not improve the existing placement process |
| 03 — Validate economics | Evidence of willingness to pay, realistic servicing costs, and an identified commercial customer | Transaction costs or required partnerships overwhelm the proposed revenue |
| 04 — Validate live structuring | Written legal analysis, qualified counterparties, confirmed funding requirements, investor permissions, and a supervised transaction plan | The proposed structure cannot establish enforceable, economically viable risk transfer |
| 05 — Expand responsibly | Repeatable placements, transparent investor outcomes, tested servicing, and authorized distribution | Capacity is episodic, losses are poorly understood, or retail access cannot be offered compliantly |
NRX does not need to operate a trading venue or assume catastrophe risk on its own balance sheet to establish commercial value. Software subscriptions, implementation services, and properly authorized structuring or servicing arrangements offer an earlier route to revenue while more complex capital infrastructure is evaluated.
| Activity | Question to resolve | Evidence / gate |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance / reinsurance placement | Who solicits, advises, negotiates, binds, accepts risk, or receives commission? Which insured and cedant jurisdictions apply? | Local insurance counsel; broker and carrier permissions; credit-for-reinsurance and collateral analysis. |
| ILS issuance & distribution | What security is issued, who may purchase it, and which registration or exemption applies? | Offering and resale restrictions; broker-dealer / adviser / fund analysis. Rule 144A concerns qualified institutional buyers, not general retail access. SEC ↗ |
| Securities trading venue | Does matching or routing bring the platform within exchange, ATS, or broker-dealer requirements? | SEC describes ATS broker-dealer registration and Form ATS requirements. Form ATS is not SEC approval. SEC ATS framework ↗ |
| Weather / event derivatives | Is the instrument a derivative, and is the venue permitted to list this particular product for the intended customers? | Analyze CFTC venue, product, clearing, intermediary, and participant requirements. Retail access does not follow from an offshore domicile. CFTC DCM framework ↗ |
| Retail pooled product | Could an authorized fund or distributor provide suitable access to ILS risk? | Separate securities / fund analysis, liquidity and valuation design, investor protection, disclosures, and distribution permissions. Not established here. |
DOMICILE SHORTLIST
Three options.
Different reasons to exist.
BERMUDA / CANDIDATE
Insurance-linked vehicle
BMA provides an SPI regime with restricted and unrestricted categories and a separate collateralized insurer class. SPI structure and participant eligibility require specific review; it is not a general retail authorization.
Validate licensing class, full funding, governance, insurance manager, collateral trustee, reporting, and investor distribution.
BMA licensing framework ↗IRELAND / CANDIDATE
Solvency II SPV
Central Bank guidance addresses prior approval, full funding, governance, contractual conditions, and supervision of insurance-risk SPVs. Incorporation alone is insufficient.
Validate transaction structure, local substance, reporting, securities issuance, and separate EU distribution permissions.
Central Bank authorization ↗GIFT CITY / OPTION TO INVESTIGATE
Regional presence
IFSCA’s 2025 ILS working-group report recommends an SPI framework. A working-group recommendation is not evidence that a usable ILS license is in force.
Confirm current enacted rules directly with IFSCA; assess insurance intermediary, fund, capital-market, and foreign-investment permissions for the exact activity.
IFSCA working-group report ↗Use the syndicate analogy precisely.
Lloyd’s members provide underwriting capital and participate through syndicates managed by managing agents. NRX’s proposed capital accounts would need their own legal instrument, defined liability, funding, governance, and servicing arrangements. They are not Lloyd’s “Names,” and NRX has no Lloyd’s affiliation.
Lloyd’s explanation of membership ↗Before a live transaction
- Classify every contract and activity. Obtain a written perimeter memo covering insurance, securities, derivatives, intermediation, custody, and target customer locations.
- Confirm the entities and authority. Select domicile and operating roles; budget local substance, governance, reporting, tax advice, and required registrations.
- Contract the essential partners. Originating broker / cedant, risk vehicle, actuary / catastrophe modeler, administrator, trustee / custodian, calculation agent, distributor, and permitted venue where needed.
- Validate the risk. Review exposure data rights, model assumptions, aggregation, basis risk, claims development, stress tests, collateral adequacy, and independent actuarial sign-off.
- Specify investor protections. Eligibility, AML/KYC and sanctions, conflicts, disclosures, complaints, concentration, valuation, liquidity, and capital loss.
- Approve operating controls. Human authorization, audit trails, cyber and privacy controls, incident response, settlement disputes, reporting, and orderly wind-down.
Naming diligence: retain Nova Risk Exchange as the project brand for now, but obtain advice before naming a regulated ATS entity. SEC broker-dealer guidance identifies restrictions on an ATS using “exchange” or similar terms in its name. SEC guide ↗
Florida take-out boundary: OIR-approved insurers assume Citizens policies through a separate approval process. NRX could seek to serve their risk-transfer workflows; the take-out program does not grant NRX authority to assume policies or access private exposure records. OIR ↗
This research identifies requirements to investigate, not legal clearance, tax advice, or an exhaustive multi-jurisdiction opinion. Rules and facts must be refreshed before fundraising terms, solicitation, or launch.
Further reading
HOW NRX WORKS
From risk cession to claims-paying liquidity.
NRX is designed to connect the full risk-transfer lifecycle, from an insurer's initial need for protection to the funding and settlement of a defined contractual obligation. The proposed workflow combines software, specialist review, existing markets, and qualified financial counterparties.
Define the risk
A cedant, reinsurer, or broker identifies the exposure, coverage gap, and portion of risk to transfer. The mandate specifies the peril, geography, underlying limit, attachment, exhaustion, exclusions, and coverage period.
Structure the obligation
NRX prepares standardized terms using AI-assisted analysis and insurance expertise. Actuarial, legal, and underwriting specialists review the proposed coverage, trigger, payout formula, and contractual responsibilities.
Discover and price capital
Technical loss estimates, comparable market evidence, and eligible capital indications inform the proposed economics. Existing market platforms may support price discovery and investor participation, subject to the appropriate product and permissions.
Syndicate, collateralize, and bind
Eligible capital is committed through an authorized structure. Qualified parties verify that the required reserve is fully funded before the enforceable insurance or reinsurance obligation takes effect.
Monitor, determine, and settle
Agreed data sources, calculation agents, and contract rules establish the amount payable after a covered event. Approved payment instructions release claims-paying funds from the secured collateral arrangement.
Reconcile and release
Remaining reserves are reconciled against outstanding obligations, expenses, and disputes. Residual capital is distributed under the contractual waterfall, with appropriate reporting and a retained audit trail.
NRX currently demonstrates selected analysis, pricing, and workflow components. Live capital syndication, binding, custody, insurance administration, and settlement require further development and authorized partners.
AVAILABLE IN THE CURRENT PROTOTYPE
- Browser-local text-based PDF extraction and wording review
- Indicative premium and reserve-funding calculations
- Sample catastrophe layer and scenario analysis
- Simulated event markets and paper portfolios
- Public research and on-demand weather-alert retrieval
- Exportable review materials
- Signed-in synthetic risk-model drafts
- Pilot inquiry submission
PLANNED / REQUIRES FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
- Grounded AI contract extraction and expert approval workflows
- Licensed actuarial and catastrophe-model integrations
- Permissioned counterparty indications
- Authorized investor distribution and capital syndication
- Live collateral custody and funding verification
- Binding insurance and reinsurance execution
- Integrated oracle, claims, and settlement administration
- Regulatory approvals and permitted production operations
Research references
These public resources illustrate the kinds of evidence that event definitions can reference. Their inclusion does not mean NRX receives a feed or has a partnership.
Help shape the pilot ↗ PREDICTION MARKETS. INSURANCE CAPACITY.
Democratizing Reinsurance.
Expanding Protection.
The global insurance protection gap is partly a capital allocation problem. Significant catastrophe exposures remain uninsured or underinsured, while investment capital exists outside traditional reinsurance markets.
Nova Risk Exchange (NRX) is developing the infrastructure to connect those two worlds.
Combining AI-assisted analysis, expert risk-transfer design, and syndicated investor capital, NRX aims to help convert participation in existing prediction markets into fully collateralized, legally enforceable insurance and reinsurance capacity through qualified partners.
Make more capital available to insure more risk.
Tools & services for existing venues · Working prototype
THE PROPOSED FUNDING MODELILLUSTRATIVE
One risk.
Many capital providers.
$25mtransferred limit
Premium
10%Syndicated retail reserve
90%
10%Syndicated retail reserve
90%
Underlying layer$100m
Ceded share25%
Premium-funded YES pool$2.5m
Retail reserve target$22.5m
Total prefunded payout reserve$25m
Full payout reserve before placement through qualified partners. NRX provides the structuring workflow. This demo accepts no funds.
Inspect the economics →Hedging through a prediction market does not automatically qualify an insurer for regulatory capital relief. An event payout, on its own, does not establish a qualifying insurance or reinsurance contract.
That is where NRX comes in. Our proposed service combines AI-assisted analysis with expert contract and capital design to connect existing markets with enforceable risk transfer and fully funded reserves. The aim: turn syndicated retail capital into additional insurance capacity and structures designed to support insurers’ solvency requirements.
Capital relief depends on the final contract, counterparty or vehicle, collateral, basis risk, and applicable rules. Recognition must be established for each structure and jurisdiction.
THE MARKET EXISTS$18.9bn
Cat bond & related ILS issuance, first nine months of 2026.
THE STRUCTURES MATTER~78%
2026 issuance tracked by Artemis used indemnity triggers as of September 10.
Existing venues.
A new insurance service layer.
NRX is designed to complement prediction-market platforms with the contract design, risk analysis, and funding workflow that insurance placements require.
Sources & product implications →THE GLOBAL PROTECTION GAP
A Capital Allocation Problem.
A Global Opportunity.
Insurance is ultimately a promise backed by capital.
Traditional insurers and reinsurers must maintain sufficient capital to withstand severe losses, satisfy regulatory requirements, and generate sustainable returns. These constraints, together with underwriting economics, distribution barriers, and concentrated exposure, can leave significant risks insufficiently protected.
But the opportunity is not simply to introduce more capital. It is to make existing and new investment capital easier to deploy against insurable risks through efficient, transparent, enforceable structures.
NRX is designed to help build that connection.
Global natural-catastrophe premium-equivalent insurance protection shortfall.
Swiss Re Institute ↗Non-life alternative reinsurance capital at June 30, 2026.
Gallagher Re ↗Catastrophe bonds outstanding at June 30, 2026.
Artemis ↗Different measures, not additive: the modeled protection gap is a premium-equivalent shortfall, not realized uninsured disaster losses or a capital requirement. Cat bonds overlap with alternative capital; source definitions and market coverage differ.
Gallagher Re reports record dedicated reinsurance capital at mid-2026. Abundant capital in aggregate can coexist with unmet protection needs: the opportunity is deployment as well as capital formation. Read the institutional context ↗
THE PLACEMENT PROBLEM
Catastrophe risk is already a market. Its interface is still a meeting.
Reinsurance capacity is negotiated across a fragmented network of brokers, underwriters, models, documents, and capital providers. Exposures are assessed repeatedly, policy wording is reviewed manually, and indications of market appetite are often gathered through bilateral conversations before a placement can take shape.
NRX proposes a more structured interface for this process: standardizing risk information, assembling pricing evidence, documenting capital interest, and preparing transactions for qualified counterparties. Human underwriting judgment remains essential. The opportunity is to make that judgment easier to apply, compare, and act upon.
FOR BROKERS & CEDANTS
From wording
to a placement.
Turn insurance wording and exposure information into a structured placement package. Define the ceded or retroceded share, compare pricing assumptions, test prospective capital appetite, and prepare an auditable record for expert review—all before a binding transaction.
Open the studio →FOR CAPITAL PROVIDERS
Understand what
you are funding.
See the risk period, trigger, maximum loss, reserve requirement, and release conditions. The retail-access vision is participation through a permitted instrument and distribution route.
Explore the market design →FOR PREDICTION-MARKET PLATFORMS
Embed a risk-transfer
workflow.
Add insurance structuring to an existing venue. NRX’s proposed workspace and APIs handle risk terms, pricing evidence, expert approvals, and funding records; partner venues handle listing and trading.
Discuss integration →THE ECONOMIC CASE
Three constituencies.
One aligned transaction.
Insurance buyers seek dependable protection. Investors require compensation for measurable risk. NRX earns by making the connection easier to structure, place, and service.
SOCIAL VALUE
Capital for catastrophe.
Reinsurance capital serves a tangible purpose: absorbing defined financial losses when insured events occur. NRX aims to broaden the pool of capital capable of supporting that protection, creating an additional route for funded catastrophe capacity while giving eligible investors exposure to clearly defined insurance risk.
Measure actual new limit placed and protection delivered. Lower premiums and a smaller protection gap are outcomes to test, not automatic consequences.
INVESTOR ECONOMICS
Earn premium.
Bear insured risk.
Retail capital receives the agreed residual reserve after payouts, expenses, and final release. Premium creates potential return; covered losses can impair or exhaust principal.
No-loss return is compensation for contingent claims and locked capital. It is neither guaranteed income nor an assumed annual yield.
NRX ECONOMICS
Revenue from
placement infrastructure.
Proposed revenue: enterprise workspace and API fees, scoped implementation, and permitted structuring or transaction fees under agreed partner arrangements.
NRX’s proposed business is tools and structuring services for brokers, cedants, and existing venues. Capital providers receive the agreed underwriting economics under the instrument terms.
02 / THE PLACEMENT LIFECYCLE
Wording to market.
Capital to coverage.
Partner prediction markets supply price discovery and participation. NRX’s proposed structuring service connects that activity to insurance obligations through contracts, qualified counterparties, and funded reserves.
Originate
Identify the exposure, coverage gap, and share of risk to cede or retrocede.
Analyze & structure
Review the wording, quantify the exposure, and define the layer, trigger, payout, and contract terms.
Price & indicate
Combine actuarial assumptions with market evidence and non-binding capital indications to evaluate placement economics.
Syndicate & fund
Connect eligible capital participants with a permitted structure and verify that the required collateral is fully funded.
Bind & monitor
Qualified counterparties establish the enforceable obligation and oversee exposure, events, reserves, and contractual conditions.
Resolve & release
Determine covered payouts, deliver approved claims-paying funds, reconcile the reserve, and release remaining capital under the contract.
Proposed lifecycle. Live syndication, funding verification, binding, monitoring, and settlement are not operational.
Illustrated capital model: a single capped payout with premium retained as collateral. Conventional cat bonds often use different premium and principal arrangements. It is a proposed NRX structure, not a description of every ILS transaction.
03 / MARKET DESIGN
The interface can be simple.
The risk must stay explicit.
Indemnity, industry-loss, and parametric contracts solve different problems. NRX’s planned AI workflow and expert reviewers preserve those differences when preparing a structure for a partner venue.
Explore triggers & evidence ↗THE SETTLEMENT CHAIN
Source → calculation → determination
Specify authoritative data, observation windows, revision rules, fallbacks, and disputes. An oracle transports evidence; the contract determines the payout.
Basis risk, principal loss, and collateral lock-up remain real. Trading liquidity is not guaranteed.
04 / EXPLORE THE PROTOTYPE
Start where your
question begins.
Place a risk
PDF intake, cession sizing, indicative pricing, fees, funding targets, and an exportable package.
Placement Studio →Inspect the evidence
Curated Artemis research, publisher headlines, and a practical source-to-product map.
Market intelligence →Stress the economics
Explore paper markets, loss scenarios, and the difference between a trigger payout and a covered loss.
Market sandbox →Risk desk → · Scenario lab →
CURRENT STATUS
Built for a
partner conversation.
Explore the workflow today.
Is NRX a prediction market?
No. NRX is developing tools and structuring services for use with existing prediction markets. Partner venues would provide listing and trading; qualified counterparties would provide the insurance or reinsurance vehicle, custody, and settlement services. The sandbox demonstrates mechanics only; no live venue integrations or partnerships are represented.
What works today—and what is planned?
AVAILABLE IN THE CURRENT PROTOTYPE
- Browser-local text-based PDF extraction and wording review
- Indicative premium and reserve-funding calculations
- Sample catastrophe layer and scenario analysis
- Simulated event markets and paper portfolios
- Public research and on-demand weather-alert retrieval
- Exportable review materials
- Signed-in synthetic risk-model drafts
- Pilot inquiry submission
PLANNED / REQUIRES FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
- Grounded AI contract extraction and expert approval workflows
- Licensed actuarial and catastrophe-model integrations
- Permissioned counterparty indications
- Authorized investor distribution and capital syndication
- Live collateral custody and funding verification
- Binding insurance and reinsurance execution
- Integrated oracle, claims, and settlement administration
- Regulatory approvals and permitted production operations
What is the retail vision?
Eligible retail participants syndicate capital behind defined insurance-linked risk through an authorized product or venue. Tokenization and smaller participation sizes may improve access; the product, investor eligibility, and legal route still need to be established.
Can I trade, invest, or bind coverage?
This public prototype accepts no capital, executes no live trades, and binds no coverage. AI interpretation, calibrated underwriting, live risk pricing, custody, and settlement integrations remain to be built.
Why prediction-market infrastructure?
Defined outcomes, transparent pricing, two-sided quoting, and funded participation are useful building blocks. A binary event price alone does not price an indemnity layer or create an insurance obligation.
ABOUT NOVA RISK EXCHANGE
Better risk decisions
begin with better questions.
NRX is an independent, founder-led project developing tools and expert structuring services for using existing prediction markets in insurance risk transfer. Its focus is the connection between insurance obligations, funded capacity, and broader investor participation.
PARTNER VALUE PROPOSITION
A new institutional use case for existing markets.
Prediction-market partners could gain a route to institutional participants seeking to evaluate, hedge, or help finance defined insurance risks. NRX would contribute the insurance specification, review workflow, and connections to qualified structuring partners that make those use cases intelligible.
Institutional participation
Help insurers, ILS managers, and sponsors assess permitted market applications against real exposures and investment mandates.
Additional commercial activity
Potential demand for approved listings, data services, integrations, and recurring risk-management workflows. Revenue depends on adoption and separately agreed commercial terms.
Useful risk transfer
Connect participation to measurable hedging outcomes or additional funded protection. Evaluate success through coverage enabled and settlement performance alongside market activity.
Proposed partner benefits, not contracted participation or guaranteed volume. NRX supplies tools and structuring services for existing venues.
MATTHEW MILLER
Built from the insurance side
of the table.
Experience across claims analytics, reinsurance valuations, and benefits consulting informs the product’s focus: make complex risk easier to examine, communicate, and act on.
NRX starts with transparent assumptions and practitioner feedback. The goal is to make risk easier to structure and fund, while developing a responsible route for eligible retail capital to participate.
Start a conversation →A focused first release.
How NRX works: the complete lifecycle →NRX's first commercial objective is to simplify the preparation and evaluation of catastrophe risk placements. The existing prototype combines document intake, indicative pricing, funding calculations, catastrophe research, and scenario analysis. The next milestone is to validate these tools against an authorized institutional placement workflow before pursuing live capital syndication and transaction execution.
NRX is an independent project. No employer, insurer, exchange, regulator, or data provider endorsement is implied.
THE LONG-TERM VISION
Democratize the Capital. Strengthen the Protection.
The next evolution of insurance-linked securities is not simply a larger catastrophe bond market.
It is a more accessible, efficient, and connected risk-transfer ecosystem—one capable of directing capital from a broader range of investors toward meaningful insurance obligations.
NRX aims to connect existing prediction-market infrastructure, distributed investment capital, and regulated insurance through technology and expert structuring.
Make risk easier to structure. Capital easier to syndicate. Protection easier to access.
Not more speculation on catastrophe. More capital available to protect against it.
Developing prototype. NRX does not accept investment capital, execute live securities transactions, or bind coverage.
BUILD WITH NOVA
Bring a placement worth simplifying.
NRX is seeking conversations with insurers, reinsurers, brokers, capital managers, and infrastructure providers interested in a more efficient way to structure and fund defined insurance risk.
The ideal starting point is a real placement challenge: a layer that is difficult to fund, a wording-intensive transaction, a need for earlier capital indications, or an event-linked exposure that could benefit from clearer structuring and settlement.
We can begin with a nonconfidential discussion or an authorized historical transaction replay. Any future live placement would require separately agreed terms and qualified counterparties.
01
Share the context.
A short, nonconfidential description is enough.
02
Explore the fit.
Your request is saved for the founder to review and respond.
03
Define the next step.
Any pilot scope and pricing are agreed separately.
This is a request for a research or product conversation, not an application to trade or obtain insurance.
INQUIRY RECEIVED
Thank you for helping
shape Nova.
Your request has been received. We’ll use the email you provided to respond.
Explore the sandbox →PRIVACY NOTICE · NOVEMBER 2, 2026
Your information.
This notice describes the current NRX website and inquiry form.
Who receives your inquiry
Nova Risk Exchange is an independent project operated by Matthew Miller. Details submitted through the form are available to the site owner for reviewing and responding to your inquiry. The website keeps requests in a private submission record for founder review; no receiving email address is published.
What is collected and why
The inquiry form stores your name, email, organization, role, selected interest, message, consent acknowledgment, and submission time. We use these to evaluate pilot interest and respond to requests. Do not submit sensitive or confidential information.
Where information is stored
Inquiries are stored in the website’s hosted database. The hosting platform and its infrastructure providers process technical data needed to deliver and secure the website. A temporary request token and hashed network identifier are used to limit automated form abuse. Expired rate-limit records are removed on subsequent submissions.
Documents and calculation inputs
PDF files and extracted wording remain in your browser and are included only in an export you initiate. The placement calculator sends numeric pricing and funding inputs and the selected maker/taker role to this site for calculation; it does not send wording, contract notes, or the pricing-source text. These calculations are not saved as placements. Publisher headlines are retrieved by the server from Artemis on request.
Your browser
Watchlists and simulated portfolios are saved in local storage on your device. Scenario inputs are not sent to NRX unless you choose to include them in an inquiry. Signed-in users may also save synthetic risk-analysis drafts in the hosted database, associated with their site identity. The risk desk sends model inputs to this site for calculation; weather requests send only the selected state to the NWS provider through the server. Draft deletion requests can be made through the privacy-request form. This release includes no advertising pixels or optional analytics. Platform authentication may use its own necessary cookies.
Use, retention, and choices
Inquiry information is used for the conversation you initiate, not added to a marketing list or sold. Records are retained while needed to handle that inquiry or an agreed pilot. You may request access, correction, or deletion through the form by selecting “Privacy request.” The operator may need to verify the request before acting. This site is intended for adults in a business or research context.
Make a privacy request →WEBSITE TERMS · NOVEMBER 1, 2026
Clear boundaries.
Better understanding.
Current product status
Nova Risk Exchange is a research demonstration and pilot intake website. It is not an operating financial exchange or an insurance product. No regulatory registration, exchange membership, partner relationship, or endorsement is represented.
Illustrations, not transactions
Sample probabilities, price histories, depth, trades, and portfolio values are constructed examples. No customer funds are accepted and no orders are transmitted, matched, routed, or executed. Browser-local paper positions do not create rights to money, securities, derivatives, or insurance coverage.
Use of the research tools
The site provides general educational information, not personalized insurance, investment, legal, or tax advice. The placement calculator includes selected fee assumptions; other models may omit fees. Models do not capture all liquidity constraints, taxes, expenses, or real-world effects. Outcomes and sources are simplified for demonstration. Verify relevant information independently before making a decision.
Responsible use
Use the website lawfully, provide accurate information in inquiries, and do not disrupt the service or attempt to access another person’s data. The form does not establish confidentiality, an advisory relationship, or an agreement to provide a paid service.
Availability and future services
Features and sample content may change. Any pilot engagement or future financial service requires its own agreed scope, terms, eligibility requirements, and applicable operating arrangements. No future product, access, launch date, or financial result is promised here.
Questions about this website can be submitted through the inquiry form.